Power Laws and the EP Forum

[James Brody]

The "intelligent design" thread grows.
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"Power laws," described in separate papers by Alfred Lotka and George Zipf (not sure either of these guys ever referenced the other) in the early decades of the 1900s, describe relationships with straight lines when plotted on log-log paper. The data do not land on a normal distribution: rather there are very few large events and zillions of smaller ones. Per Bak (1993) summarized these relationships when he dropped grains of rice, one at a time, onto a small, flat table. A pile would grow into a constant volume before grains found the edge of the table and from there, the floor. Each grain,on impact, however, might produce a major avalanche or might move only a few grains.

Power laws apply to a large kingdom of emergent organizations, whether electrical power networks, scientific contacts or those between film stars, and the social networks in clouds of termites, ants, or university faculty.

This forum, I suspect, exhibits power-law behavior.

That is, some essays, regardless of length or content, will get only a few responses. Others elicit scads of them.

I further suspect that responses draw viewings and viewings eventually let Gil Levin sell the whole forum to that damned octopus, Yahoo. (My nightmare, no data to support it.)

I downloaded the numbers several months ago and the preliminary graphs looked good but I put the suckers away...

Topics and authors may have an influence. Fred, for example, usually gets the pot to simmer but he also is most apt to comment on religion. That topic may be uniquely unstable, avalanching very often, or unstable for brief intervals. I suspect that unstable topics are linked to our unstable minds: that is, postings on ghosts and space aliens would show similar popularity.

Maybe a fun project for one of you gifted people...

JB

[Fred H.]

JimB: I suspect that unstable topics are linked to our unstable minds: that is, postings on ghosts and space aliens would show similar popularity.

Vince Lombardi: Gentleman, this is a football.
I suspect it has more too do with the lack of appreciation for fundamentals. If anything is not unstable, it’s mathematics; and yet the narrow materialism of many here seems to preclude their acceptance or acknowledgement that 1+1=2, or that the infinitely many prime numbers, are timeless objective truths, that mathematical truth is not merely some sort of relative, subjective construct.

[Margaret McGhee]

JimB said: I suspect that unstable topics are linked to our unstable minds: that is, postings on ghosts and space aliens would show similar popularity.

It's not entirely clear whose minds you are describing as unstable, Fred's, other posters or all our minds. I could be wrong but it does seem in context that you mean Fred's.

If so, as a counter-argument and just to keep things flowing:

There are many forums where ghosts, space aliens and religion are the popular topics under discussion. There, comments on science are often seen as uninformed and the poster is often accused of intending to cause instablity (trolling).

That leads me to suspect that instability in online forums is caused by a percieved mismatch between the worldview expressed in the post and that of the forum where it is placed. And, the more emotionally attached those worldviews are - the more likely it is that instability will result.

Also, posts at some forums I've lurked at (right wing religious) contain some posts that definitely seem to me to come from unstable minds. And those are some very stable forums with members forming close friendships over long stretches of time.

Personally I enjoy posts that oppose the reigning worldview - as long as no-one gets too bent. I think they offer a vivid look into the strong belief systems that inhabit people's minds (on both sides).

I suspect that people who are looking to confirm their worldview spend their time with the choir and not among the apostates. It takes some courage to know that whatever you say it will probably be ridiculed by someone taking up the forum banner (worldview).

But I think people who spend time (politely) at forums that promote an opposite worldview are testing their own and opening themselves to other ways of looking at the world. I applaud that.

Margaret

[Fred H.]

Margaret M: It's not entirely clear whose minds you are describing as unstable, Fred's, other posters or all our minds. I could be wrong but it does seem in context that you mean Fred's….
Margaret— As you suggest, it does seem that JimB may have been alluding to my own instability, but then again . . .

I found an old post of how Jim sees his role here (and between you and me, I think the ole fart does reasonably well):

Forums and Tap Rooms James Brody · 01/28/02 at 10:31 PM ET

I hang at a local Fridays several evenings per week. It's a good place to edit and to check ideas for their alignment with audiences. That is, am I still "real" or in one of my dreams?

I realized the other nite that my role here often resembles that of a bartender. I put out nibbles and maybe start a conversation but I rarely butt into whatever inspired or strange things the customers utter.

You see things here that are very much tap room. That is, guys make a statement, other guys poke holes, or sometimes emit "atta boy!" Few use their real names and almost no one uses a last name. Friday nites are the busiest, Mondays and Tuesdays are for cleaning glasses. There are a couple of ladies of the evening here: And like most careful, successful, women (if they ARE women...I HAVE been fooled!), they are more discerning with their comments, ask more questions, and evaluate us chest thumpers.

There's a scanning aspect that also resembles a taproom. Virgil Partch (noted taproom cartoonist) once did a beauty of a guy and a dragon separated by 8 barstools. One drink later, they're a stool closer and the dragon no longer breaths fire. So it goes for another 6 drinks and the dragon morphs into a babe.

In this forum, ideas replace gin. Agreement or admiration replace the shot that sometimes goes with a beer but elicits the same warm glow, the same addictive kick. Of course, there is no danger here of the 20/40 phenomenon...that a partner at 40 feet looks great until she gets within 20! (Happens all the time when my glasses need to be adjusted.) Sorta like the guy switching to coffee when halfway down the bar to the dragon.

There's an entertainment function: the bartenders at Fridays juggle bottles and drop them. Sorta like NASCAR...no one would watch if they never broke a bottle or mug with a missed throw over their shoulder. Perhaps Geoff Miller would find the bartender to be the ultimate display maker...it seems a little silly and a male weakness, but juggling words and ideas, pretending to understand them, keeps me going!

There's a small enforcement role...erase the profane, the banal, and rarely, the just plain wrong. As in a typical Pottstown, depleted mill town, tradition, the tips are few but appreciated.

And sometimes I get to mop up.

Jim

[alexandra_k]

> I found an old post of how Jim sees his role here...

I liked that :-)

One thing I like about the evolutionary psych. forum is that he just keeps on throwing ideas up there and happily chats to whosoever comes along and offers a response.

As a poster who has had her posts on the other forums studiously ignored... That counts for a lot :-)

And... He isn't too bad at prompting... or perhaps even provoking... intense responses and differences of opinion either. Getting people fired up... Is one way of getting them joining in. Though I am a little puzzled as to why there aren't more people here... I would have been here more... But I have been busy...

Sigh.

:-)